The Bottom line
Only a dimwit kicks a sleeping dog, whacks a hornet nest or spits into the wind. So here we have it a month out from the midterm elections.
This is done. Stick a fork in it. Gone, toast.
Here’s what’s coming to a community near you.
This is a rant that I been waiting to write for a few months. The time has come and we’re about three weeks out from the United Spasms of Anxiety’s midterm elections. I promised you, dear readers, that I would offer up my humble predictions as to the outcome of this landmark political event.
So here we are. Let me give you the bottom line right up front: I believe that this election is a watershed moment in American politics. I think it will show the rise to power, and consolidation, of the feminine political force. But, as I also conclude, this is really just the first wave of transformational change to hit the shores of this 250-year-old Republic. My little cynical voice says that this may be the election the tells us if that Republic is to endure.
I’m not going to try to give you specific numbers of how many House or Senate seats change hands; I’ll leave that to the professional prognosticators below. I’ll just say that it’s going to be major and fundamental. Moreover, changes at the local levels may even be more profound.
Now a little background:
There is an old country saying that “you never tell a man his dog is ugly.” Well, that’s exactly what the old guard did (whom I call the PMS’ers – signified by the opening picture to this blog). That Supreme Court justice hearing was an “in your face, you don’t matter” moment. And it did not go unnoticed. The emotional – yes emotional – response among women and other disenfranchised groups will be THE driving force on November 6.
The pundits would have us believe that this is the start of “blue wave” election. No way, my friends: this is a pink wave, and may I add, a pink wave with a lot of new candidates with military experience. I’m looking at you MJ, Amy, Gina, Chrissy and Mikie.
Dem Facts or Kryptonite meets ‘Fake News”
Okay, enough of my opinionated “fake news.” Let’s look at a few facts.
Charlie Cook, one of the best known pundits, predicts a House gain of somewhere between 25 and 40 seats. It takes a net gain of 23 seats to turn control over to the Democratic Party. Moreover (and I quote):
“I expect net gains for Democrats in governorships of between six and a dozen, and a pickup for Democrats of between 400 and 650 state legislative seats, more than the average midterm loss of 375 seats for the party in the White House.”
The research site 538 predicts that there’s a 77.7% chance of this shift taking place.
To top it off Rutgers University reports that 235 female candidates for House seats have been successful in making it through their party’s primaries. Compare that to 167 female candidates making it that far in the last cycle. That’s an increase of roughly 40% in the available pool of qualified female candidates. I call that a force multiplier – if you get my drift.
You may ask, “so what”? Fair question. But if you look at the underlying psychology of all of this there’s a pretty simple equation that describes what’s going on. First of all, political sentiment changes or a small quiet voice that hasn’t been prominent rises above the noise and becomes a new potent force. New sentiment then changes into behavior, which in this case will be people voting. Next comes a change in policy and then we begin to feel the social impact of the wave of change – say, two years out.
As a sociologist, I find this quite interesting and note the last time we saw such a sea change corresponded to the rather ugly economic time we call the Great Depression. The political movement that corresponded with this was what we now call “Prohibition”.
What is often missed is that Prohibition wasn’t about abolishing alcohol consumption. It was about a profound change in the social norms that was personified by the presence of “saloons.” Look it up. Google it. Search under “anti-saloon league”. Could it be that we are witnessing a repeat of the rise of the feminine in this cycle? And if so, does this somehow portend a related economic catastrophe? I’ll save my economic analysis for another time and leave you to ponder the question.
However, I will offer one closing thought. If these political changes come to be, as I think they will, they will ultimately have a transformative impact on social policies. That’s the 600-pound gorilla no one wants to talk about right now because our conversations are centered on hate, greed and delusion. Deeper discussion here.
Life-affirming policies will quickly replace profit-oriented ones. The political goal will not be to find THE answer to the problem but to deepen the experience of being – for all. The beginning of awakening. More Zen coming after the election.
The next Buddha may be a sangha – Thich Nhat Hanh
Take us out Cyndi